US Outcomes and Active Management
November 25, 2024
US Outcomes
No super strong opinions about anything really, stuff that concerns me:
- US employment numbers were atrocious earlier this month but completely lost in the noise of the election. I can underwrite a strong market sell-off if the job numbers disappoint. Fed might end up looking like heroes if they've looked like they've moved early in response
- Trump victory means some parts of the market working very well – distinct possibility that these same names and sectors keep rallying through to inauguration and markets price in absolute perfection
- If US fiscal spending is reigned in a tiny bit, I think it opens up the possibility of further monetary stimulus – more rate cuts!
Fees and Active Management
I appreciate it is just easier to index and go long equities – KISS. Best outcomes by just DCA over the long run.
But unfortunately, not everyone has those liquidity requirements and there are sometimes opportunities outside straight large caps.
Hopefully the tables give you comfort around passive vs active and where you can play so that you're likelier to win by having an active exposure.
